XRP spot ETF has 85% chance of approval this year, say Bloomberg analysts

The likelihood of a spot XRP ETF launching in 2025 has increased, according to the latest update from Bloomberg Intelligence. Analysts now estimate an 85% chance that a spot XRP product will gain approval from the SEC, up sharply from 65% in their February outlook.

ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have also increased approval odds for other digital asset-backed funds, with products tracking Litecoin and Solana leading the pack.

Spot ETFs for Litecoin and Solana are given a 90% likelihood of approval by Bloomberg. Litecoin has especially benefited from the CFTC’s classification of LTC as a commodity.

Solana’s approval probability has jumped from 70% to 90%, with the asset attracting multiple ETF filings and institutional interest driven by its DeFi and NFT ecosystems.

Other assets are also gaining momentum. Dogecoin and Hedera ETFs are assigned an 80% likelihood of approval.

The Cardano ETF, filed only by Grayscale so far, carries an estimated 75% chance of approval.

Avalanche, one of the latest assets to be filed for, is likewise at 75%, with a final SEC decision expected around December 12. Polkadot ETFs are tracking at the same 75% odds.

The SEC recently delayed decisions on several applications, including Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP and Solana ETFs, Grayscale’s HBAR ETF, Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF, and Ethereum staking ETFs from Franklin and Fidelity.

These funds join a growing list of proposed crypto products currently awaiting regulatory approval.

Most altcoin ETF decisions are expected between Q3 and Q4 of 2025. While the SEC could reject applications over market manipulation concerns or insufficient investor protections, ETF experts believe denial is less likely given futures market development, legal progress, and bipartisan interest in the crypto market structure.