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Will Michael Burry’s Big Nvidia Bet Pay Off? NVDA Stock Tumbles As Polymarket Rakes It In

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are up when writing, but interestingly, Nvidia is tumbling, and risks dragging the entire market with it.

Of the three major indices, Nasdaq risks losing way more, especially if investors’ fears that the Nvidia sell-off is just the beginning. Despite the blockbuster Nvidia Q3 2025 results, NVDA stock has been on a free fall, losing over $20 per share.

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Although prices are stable around the $178 to $182 range at spot rates, and not far away from all-time highs of $212, will NVDA extend losses today?

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NVIDIA’s Q3 Report Was Solid, But Stock Prices Fell

The decline in Nvidia stock comes as a surprise, especially for those who follow headline EPS, revenue, and profit readings.

What really drives Nvidia stock is how quickly they ramp up new chipsets that are far more efficient and powerful than those of their competitors and other models, as well as the rate at which these chipsets are deployed to data center operators.

These chipsets power AI, and as of Q3 2025, Nvidia posted higher-than-expected revenue fueled by unrelenting AI demand. Revenue grew +22% QoQ to $57 billion, while data center revenue also exploded by nearly the same margin to $51.2 billion.

Based on their Q4 2025 forward guidance, they expect revenue to expand to $65 billion while spending $5 billion in operational expenditure.

At this pace, Nvidia projects another +14% growth in Q4 2025, though there will be no contribution from the China data center. What’s more? Their full-year outlook is bullish, and revenue from Blackwell chipsets is on track to break $500Bn driven by new deals.

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Why is Nvidia Stock Falling? Is Michael Burry of “The Big Short” Right?

CFO Colette Kress and founder, Andrew Huang, both paint a picture of accelerating, multi-year demand across the global AI stack, but there are concerns.

Before deregistering from the SEC earlier this month, Michael Burry, the founder of hedge fund Scion Asset Management, placed a bearish bet against NVDA stock.

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Based on their Q3 2025 13F filing covering positions as of September 30, the fund was net short on Nvidia, disclosing a put option of 1M NVDA shares with a notional value of $187, of which they paid roughly $10 million to open.

The long-dated put option will rake in huge profits for Scion should Nvidia stock continue dropping by the time the option expires.

Burry believes in the current “AI bubble,” Nvidia is right at the center, noting that hype always outpaces sustainable demand.

Although the short is not based on AI as an industry, the position is against an industry that could be overextended with key players overbuilding.

Google, Meta, and Microsoft, Burry observes, are spending trillions on AI data centers and buying large quantities of chips in a frenzy, although AI demand could sharply slow down in the next two years.

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In this boom, Burry also notes that Nvidia has been investing in customers like OpenAI. These clients then have to buy Nvidia chips. In these “give-and-take” deals, Burry believes the chipset manufacturer ends up masking weaknesses, particularly in key metrics such as revenue.

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