White House extends Jones Act waiver to ease oil supply amid Iran conflict

The White House has extended the Jones Act shipping waiver to address domestic oil supply issues amid the ongoing Iran conflict. The market for crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.2% YES, down from 3% yesterday.

The extension targets the domestic oil supply crunch caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The move lowers the probability of a near-term crude oil price spike, and the market for crude oil hitting $90 by June could see further declines. At 1.2% YES, traders see almost no chance of an all-time high within the next week.

The April 30 all-time high market has daily volume at $72,279 in face value but only $2,006 in actual USDC. Just $1,020 would move the price by 5 percentage points, making it vulnerable to swings from single large trades. The biggest move in the past 24 hours was the drop from 3% to 1.2% after the waiver news hit.

The waiver extension is an effort to contain oil price surges driven by geopolitical tensions, but it does not signal any de-escalation in Middle East hostilities. For traders, the low odds on the April 30 market mean limited upside for betting on a price spike. Buying YES at 1.2¢ would yield a 83.3x return, but that bet only pays off if you expect an imminent and drastic geopolitical shock.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements or significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy, as either could move the odds. The White House’s next decisions on strategic reserves or additional waivers will matter most.

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