What On-Chain Data Means for BTC’s Future

The Bitcoin Bull Score, a composite metric tracking MVRV Z-Score, cycle indicators, and trader profit margins, has gone to 20, a reading historically related to bearish conditions.

This signal comes at a time when BTC is trading at just over $113,000 and hovering above key support levels, even though it is showing cracks in market momentum.

On-Chain Metrics Paint a Cautious Picture

In an August 28 post on X, analyst JA_Maartun highlighted the Bitcoin Bull Score’s worrying level, saying it was “something to take seriously.”

According to him, a score of 20 is bearish, implying that the fundamental conditions supporting the current bull run are deteriorating. His assessment is similar to observations from other analysts like Axel Adler Jr., who, on his part, noted that the market was balanced on the edge of bearish territory, with an integral index of 43% sitting just below a key 45% threshold.

He characterized the current state as a “soft” bearishness, where the market could tip back to neutral with a few hours of positive derivatives flows, but without that, it faces a scenario of technical bounces rather than a powerful upward reversal.

Further analysis from Glassnode points to a key support band between $107,000 and $108,900. According to the firm, a break below this level could open the door for a deeper pullback toward $93,000.

This cautious outlook from on-chain signals clashes with some cycle theories that foresee more gains. Previously, market watcher Cryptobirb projected that the current bull run is 93% complete and could peak between late October and mid-November of 2025.

However, the traditional four-year cycle narrative has been questioned in some quarters, with several analysts debating whether this pattern is breaking down. One theory suggests money is no longer predictably rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum to altcoins, but is instead creating “isolated mini-cycles.” This fundamental shift in market structure could mean the old cycle rules no longer apply.

Meanwhile, there is some more data supporting the bearish case. For instance, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio’s 30-day moving average recently fell to a seven-year low below 0.98, suggesting that sell orders are overwhelmingly surpassing buy orders. This is a dynamic that has often come before a significant price drop.

Price Action

Looking at the market, BTC’s immediate price action shows a 24-hour gain of 2.14% to take it to $113,094. However, while it has dropped by less than 1% over seven days, there has been more noticeable instability over longer timeframes, with the OG cryptocurrency shedding 8.2% in the last two weeks, and nearly 5% across the month.

It is currently sitting 9.1% below its recent all-time high of $124,457, and its trading range for the last seven days, between $109,214 and $117,016, suggests the market may be searching for direction.