Trump-Xi summit confirmed for May 14-15 in Beijing

The Trump-Xi summit is set for May 14-15 in Beijing. “Will Trump visit China by May 31?” sits at 74% YES, up from 73.5% yesterday.

Traders are reacting to the confirmed dates, which directly resolve questions about Trump’s visit. The April 30 market remains at 0.5% YES, since a visit within six days is effectively impossible. The May 31 and June 30 markets are more active, with odds at 74% and 81% YES. The gap between April 30 and May 31 is the largest jump across timeframes, showing strong conviction that the visit happens in May.

Volume hit $54,216 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The May 31 market spiked 3 points at 12:03 AM. It takes $5,541 to move the May odds by 5 percentage points, which points to moderate liquidity.

With the summit now officially scheduled, the market question shifts from whether Trump visits to whether anything disrupts the trip before May 31. Buying YES at 74¢ offers a potential 1.35x return, banking on Trump arriving before month’s end.

Watch for Trump’s departure announcement, any shifts in the administration’s China posture, or statements from the White House or Chinese Foreign Ministry. A formal departure date would likely push the May 31 odds higher; a cancellation or postponement would collapse them.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.