The Strait of Hormuz crisis has driven an 8% surge in crude oil prices, pushing the likelihood of crude hitting $90 by the end of June to ? YES.
Market reaction
Crude oil markets are responding to the controlled de-escalation phase of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. With 73 days left until resolution, traders are adjusting odds in anticipation of continued supply disruptions. June 30 markets could see further increases if geopolitical tensions persist. Markets are pricing in a 15% expected move.
Volume in crude oil predictions sits at $0, meaning actual trading activity is subdued despite the face-value appearance of liquidity. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The thin order book means any significant development could trigger sharp price swings.
Why it matters
Current geopolitical conditions point to a “controlled conflict” phase, which could keep crude prices elevated. The immediate threat of full-scale conflict has lessened, but markets are not yet pricing in a stable resolution. The possibility of further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on sentiment. Buying YES at current odds could pay off if tensions escalate, though volatility remains high.
What to watch
Traders should monitor EIA updates, OPEC statements, and any shifts in U.S. military posture in the Middle East. Prince Abdulaziz’s next public statement could also move oil supply expectations.
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