Polymarket opens betting on Satoshi’s identity in new documentary, Adam Back leads

A new Polymarket pool is letting users bet on the person the “Finding Satoshi” documentary will identify as Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin. Adam Back currently leads at 56% odds.

Directed by Matthew Miele and Tucker Tooley, “Finding Satoshi” tracks a four-year investigation by author William Cohan and private investigator Tyler Maroney into the identity of Bitcoin’s creator.

Cohan, known for books on Wall Street’s power structures and financial crises, teams up with Maroney, a co-founder of Quest Research & Investigations who focuses on high-profile and crypto-related cases. The documentary follows their work conducting interviews with industry figures including Michael Saylor, alongside forensic analysis and reviews of longstanding theories.

The film examines Bitcoin’s origins and its impact while seeking a definitive answer to the question of Satoshi’s identity. “Finding Satoshi” is scheduled to premiere online on April 22.

From HBO to The New York Times

“Finding Satoshi” tackles a question the internet has spent nearly two decades failing to answer: who created Bitcoin?

An October 2024 HBO documentary, “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” put forward Peter Todd as a potential Satoshi. The case leans on his early Bitcoin contributions and technical credentials.

Todd rejected the conclusion, and the film ultimately failed to convince the public that he was a credible match.

Len Sassaman and Hal Finney are among the most widely cited candidates for Satoshi in the crypto community. Both appear in the newly launched poll on potential identities.

Polymarket bettors are leaning toward Back, who has been identified as a likely candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto in recent reporting.

New York Times journalist John Carreyrou named the British cryptographer behind Hashcash as a leading candidate based on an analysis of Satoshi’s writings, correspondence from a 2024 London court case, and historical cypherpunk mailing list archives.

The investigation highlights linguistic overlaps, stylometric matches, and early work by Back that resembles elements of the Bitcoin white paper. It also notes behavioral parallels, including timing correlations between Back’s online activity and key milestones in the network’s early history.

Back has repeatedly pushed back against the allegation that he is the creator of Bitcoin.

According to Arkham Intel, Satoshi holds an estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin, worth around $82 billion. Until those holdings move, the mystery remains unresolved.