Nvidia stock falls below 200-day moving average for first time in a year

Nvidia shares fell below their 200-day moving average after this week’s GTC event failed to revive the stock, even as CEO Jensen Huang projected that the company’s Blackwell and Rubin product lines could help drive as much as $1 trillion in data center revenue through 2027.

Nvidia was down about 3.5% on the day, trading near $172 and approaching a key support level around $170 that has held since September 2025. The 200-day moving average sits near $178, and Nvidia is on pace to close below that level today, signaling a key shift in trend. A confirmed close below it would mark a technical breakdown after holding above the long-term trend line since its recovery in May 2025 following the tariff-driven selloff.

The weakness is not just about Nvidia. Markets have been rattled for weeks by geopolitical turmoil and shifting monetary policy expectations. The US and Israel’s war with Iran has driven crude sharply higher, with Brent recently trading above $105 a barrel and US crude near $99, while US gasoline prices have jumped more than 30% since the conflict began.

That energy shock is feeding inflation fears at a bad time. US consumer prices rose 0.3% in February from the prior month and 2.4% from a year earlier, while producer prices rose 0.7% in February, the biggest monthly increase in seven months.

The Fed held rates steady on March 18 and warned that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with specific attention to Middle East developments. Interest rate futures now suggest traders see little chance of cuts before mid 2027.

That backdrop has hit equities hard. The S&P 500 is nearing 6,495 on Friday, down about 7% since early February, while the Nasdaq Composite is near 21,535, down nearly 9% from its February highs. Both indexes fell again on Friday as oil rose and investors repriced the rate path.