Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Talks involve the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to restart negotiations.
Traders remain skeptical. The April 7 market is nearly flat, showing doubt about immediate progress. The April 15 and April 30 markets show slight optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively.
Traders expect movement in late April or May. Odds jump 19 points between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential catalyst.
Trading volume hit $431,402 in USDC across all ceasefire markets yesterday. The April 7 market’s $22,948 in USDC shows thin liquidity — $12,352 moves it 5 points. In contrast, April 30 requires $19,925 for the same move, indicating more depth.
Ceasefire talks face hurdles. Iran’s rejection of US demands and insistence on permanent guarantees keep odds low for a quick resolution. Trump’s deadline could escalate tensions. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. Belief in a rapid breakthrough within four days is needed.
Watch for last-minute changes from Trump or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s ultimatum deadline is Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET. Any shift towards “productive” or “deal” could impact odds.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Galaxy reportedly explored restructuring the merger through Canada after concerns grew over possible SEC…
When it comes to hookup sites and apps, reputation is everything. A company can buy…
From a definitive “changing of the guard” for Ethereum’s most iconic media powerhouse to major…
Kalshi and Polymarket lost bids to block gambling cases in Nevada and Washington. Summary A…
When you think of Memorial Day sales, you probably think of mattresses and other home…
Key TakeawaysWarsh officially became Fed chair after Powell’s transition and unanimous FOMC leadership selection.Senate confirmations…