Can it break above the 50-day MA?

Pi Network has struggled to keep up with the recent crypto market recovery, down about 10% over the past week.

At $0.5832, the token is currently trading roughly 80% lower than its all-time high of $2.99. The recent trading volume, however, paints a slightly different picture. Pi Network’s (PI) trading volume rose by nearly 35% over the last day, surpassing $128 million. Though the technical picture is still uncertain, this suggests that traders are once again paying attention, which could be a sign of a more significant move.

The biggest hurdle right now is the 50-day simple moving average, which sits around $0.82. PI is still below that line, and many other short-term moving averages like the 10-day and 20-day, also show a bearish trend.

The relative strength is at 38.7, which means the token is leaning toward oversold, but not quite there. Still, a few indicators like the moving average convergence/divergence suggest buyers may be slowly stepping in.

Bollinger Bands show PI is near the lower band, suggesting it’s trading in the lower volatility range and may be oversold. A bounce from here could take the price back toward the middle band near $0.75, or higher.

If PI breaks above the 50-day SMA with strong volume, it could push toward $0.85–$0.90. A rally past $1.00 would flip sentiment, especially if driven by major news. If prices stay under key moving averages and selling continues, PI could retest support near $0.55 or even fall to $0.45, close to its historical low.

One of the biggest risks for Pi Network is token dilution. In April, 21.4 million new tokens were unlocked, worth about $12.3 million. An estimated 131 million tokens are expected to be unlocked every month for the next 12 months. Unless demand rises or the team takes action, this gradual increase in supply could have a big effect on price. 

One solution could be a token burn. The Pi Foundation currently owns more than 70 billion PI tokens, valued at over $40 billion. To ease investor fears and support the price, some of these could be burned. Token burns can also be combined with fee-burning mechanisms. 

Another potential catalyst is listing on a major exchange like Coinbase or Binance. There is increasing positive community sentiment for a future listing, which, like other tokens, could unlock new demand and liquidity. For the time being, Pi Network’s ability to turn the 50-day MA into support may be the first indication that true strength is returning.