Bitcoin realized cap surges, bullish trend likely to hold

Bitcoin is showing renewed strength as on-chain data and macro conditions align to support a bullish outlook. 

According to a May 13 post on the Bitfinex Alpha blog, the realized market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) has reached $889 billion after rising 2.1% in the past 30 days. The realized cap values each coin at the price at which it was last moved, unlike the regular market cap, which multiplies the current price by the total supply. 

This approach better captures ongoing buying interest and more accurately represents the actual capital that has entered the market. Spot exchange-traded funds activity reflects that inflow. Net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $920 million over the last two weeks, indicating strong institutional interest.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows taht the number of coins held at a loss has drastically decreased, and over 3 million BTC have returned to profit territory. These changes suggest that market sentiment has improved and that sell-side pressure has decreased.

After dropping 32% from its record high set earlier in this year, Bitcoin has made a strong comeback, regaining the $100,000 mark for the first time in more than three months. Bitfinex analysts credit the rally to a cooling of international trade tensions and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish stance.

While broader risk markets have responded favorably to this macro backdrop, Bitcoin has outperformed equities, further confirming its status as a high-conviction asset for many investors.

On the policy front, the U.S. continues to struggle with digital asset legislation. A key crypto bill, the Genius Act, failed in the Senate by a narrow vote, reflecting continued division on how to regulate the space. States like New Hampshire, on the other hand, are making progress with new legislation that permits investment in digital assets like Bitcoin. 

All things considered, Bitcoin’s increasing realized cap and growing institutional presence suggest that this rally has deeper roots than many others and may still have room to grow.