Bitcoin holds steady as war tests its ‘safe haven’ narrative

Bitcoin has outperformed stocks and even gold during the Iran conflict, giving fresh fuel to Anthony Pompliano’s claim that it is behaving more like a crisis hedge than a high‑beta tech bet.

Anthony Pompliano argues that Bitcoin is emerging as a rare stabilizer in a war‑shocked market, claiming the asset has been the “shining light” during the Iran conflict while stocks, bonds, and even gold sell off. In a circulating clip from CNBC’s Squawk Box, the ProCap Financial CEO notes that “in a true risk‑off environment, Bitcoin isn’t following, instead it’s starting to decouple,” with volatility compressing and demand holding even as traditional hedges wobble. His comments arrive as traders hunt for assets that can withstand sudden geopolitical shocks and weekend headline risk.

Since the first strikes on Iran, Bitcoin has quietly beaten many of the assets it is usually compared against. As reported by Fortune, BTC was up about 7% and trading near $71,000 even as gold stayed roughly flat and the S&P 500 slipped around 1% in the early phase of the war, according to Binance pricing. A separate analysis by Martin Leinweber, CFA, found Bitcoin dropped to roughly $63,000 on the initial Saturday night attack before grinding higher and ultimately outperforming gold, Asian equities, and the Korean stock market over the following weeks, with only oil doing better as a direct beneficiary of the conflict. The Economic Times likewise noted that Bitcoin had gained about 10% since the initial strikes, pushing above $72,000 and beating the US dollar and major stock indexes.

Pompliano’s argument is that this performance marks a structural shift: Bitcoin behaving less like a high‑beta tech proxy and more like what he has previously described as “global insurance” against extreme geopolitical and monetary risk. “Chaos isn’t pushing capital out… it’s pulling it in,” CryptosRus summarized of his remarks on X, highlighting compressed volatility and steady demand while legacy safe havens face selling pressure. Recent coverage from Fortune and the Economic Times underscores that pattern, with Bitcoin up mid‑single to low‑double digits since the war began, versus flat gold and weaker equities.

Still, the decoupling narrative is contested. As recently as mid‑March, analysts at Investing.com described Bitcoin as “behaving like a risk asset” with tight correlation to Nasdaq 100 futures, the US dollar, and Treasury yields as Iran headlines hit. VanEck’s Matthew Sigel has argued that $100,000 Bitcoin within a year is “totally reasonable,” but warns that war‑driven volatility leaves room for another 20% drawdown, a view echoed by macro investor James Lavish. Crypto.news has previously reported that war‑related oil shocks, ceasefire rumors, and Trump’s shifting stance on Iran have repeatedly pinned BTC in a $65,000–$73,000 range even as it briefly spiked above $73,000 when risk appetite returned.

The result is a more nuanced picture than pure safe‑haven marketing. In prior cycles, as crypto.news has noted, Bitcoin has often traded like a leveraged macro bet, lagging gold and silver when investors fled to safety and struggling to attract defensive inflows. Yet the Iran war has showcased attributes that Pompliano and other long‑time advocates emphasize: a market that stays open when bombs fall on weekends, can reprice risk instantly, and, in this case, has outperformed many traditional hedges on a multi‑week basis even as liquidity remains fragile. Whether that is the start of a lasting decoupling or a wartime anomaly will depend on how long the conflict drags on—and how often Bitcoin can be the asset that does not blink first when the next crisis hits.

In this context, Bitcoin’s live pricing and broader crypto market dynamics can be tracked on crypto.news price and market pages, including dedicated trackers for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major assets, as well as recent reporting on ceasefire speculation, Trump’s Iran strategy, and how Dubai’s crypto hub is adapting to wartime risk.