Bitcoin completed a remarkable turnaround in the past week, surging from under $65,000 on Wednesday to a three-month high above $81,000 earlier this morning.
The move began abruptly on August 19, accelerated in the following days, and, unlike the previous breakout attempts, was not halted painfully in its tracks. Obviously, something changed in the market, but the question is what precisely.
Who Lit the Fuse
The most talked-about reason behind the initial leg up was the US Treasury Department’s announcement last Wednesday that the government would at least double buybacks of longer-dated Treasury securities. This meant an increase in 10- to 30-year debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
At its core, the move was aimed at improving liquidity and easing pressure in the long end of the bond market, where borrowing costs had skyrocketed. Risk-on assets like BTC, alongside gold, reacted immediately with a surge from $64,000 to $70,000, while Treasury yields declined initially.
Here’s where this narrative breaks down. Long-term yields rebounded almost immediately, while BTC’s price rocketed by another $10,000-$11,000. According to analysts from the Kobeissi Letter, this suggested that investors were interpreting the Treasury intervention not merely as lower-yield support but as evidence of growing pressure surrounding the US’s fiscal policy.
As previously reported, US federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, while persistent deficits and massive refinancing requirements intensified uncertainty about how the government will manage the situation.
Debasement Trade Returns
The US dollar is the second macro piece in this equation. Treasury intervention pressured the greenback and revived Wall Street calls for the debasement trade: capital moving toward scarce assets, like BTC and gold, when investors fear that fiscal and monetary policies could gradually erode fiat purchasing power.
The precious metal exceeded $4,600 per ounce during bitcoin’s rally past $81,000. This synchronized move strengthened the argument that investors are treating both assets as alternatives to government-issued money.
Ray Dalio added fuel to that fire a few days ago, warning of a potential US debt crisis and recommending investors own gold and a ‘bit of bitcoin,’ while the dollar fell to a multi-month low.
Changes in Liquidity Expectations
The Treasury Department’s move led to another important change as markets are increasingly debating whether the government could use its enormous Treasury General Account more aggressively to support the bond market. The account recently stood at around $950 billion, and speculation that some of this liquidity could effectively be deployed through expanded Treasury operations has gained significant attention.
Although this is not quantitative easing, in fact, it’s very far away from it, if Treasury actions reduce pressure on long-term borrowing costs, weaken the dollar, or inject additional liquidity into financial markets, the broader environment becomes considerably more favorable for scarce and risk-sensitive assets such as BTC.
Who Amplified the Move
Appetite for BTC through the spot Bitcoin ETFs returned with vengeance last week as the figures showed a massive resurgence: almost $2 billion entered the funds in just five days, hitting a three-month record. Expectedly, the demand accelerated after Wednesday.
Separately, the rapid move from under $65,000 to $70,000 first and $75,000 a day later forced heavily leveraged bearish trades to close positions. More than $4 billion in shorts were liquidated in less than two days, which helps explain the extreme nature of the reaction.
The Treasury announcement was the initial spark, followed by falling confidence in the dollar, which, alongside America’s fiscal trajectory, strengthened demand for scarce assets. ETF inflows added genuine spot demand, while short liquidations accelerated an already powerful surge.
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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/why-did-bitcoin-explode-past-81k-4-macro-factors-behind-the-rally/
