Netanyahu not invited to Washington amid US-Iran tensions

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn’t been invited to Washington, according to his office. The odds of Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 sit at 5.5% YES.

The lack of an invitation comes as GOP lawmakers discuss authorizing continued military action against Iran. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market is relatively stable, down only slightly from 6% a week ago. Meanwhile, the US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 market is at 0.5% YES, down from 2% yesterday, with the deadline tomorrow.

Traders are pricing in diplomatic isolation for Netanyahu but not enough to meaningfully raise the odds of his departure. The May 31 contract at 3.4% YES shows no expectation of an immediate political shake-up. On the US-Iran side, the May 31 peace deal contract is at 29.5% YES, showing skepticism about a quick resolution.

Trading volume on the Netanyahu markets is low compared to the US-Iran peace deal market, which saw combined USDC volume of $498,141 in the past 24 hours. The order book for Netanyahu’s departure requires $16,447 to move 5 points, meaning it would take real money to shift the odds. The peace deal market is thinner at $6,238 to move 5 points, making it more susceptible to a few large trades.

The missing invitation points to a lack of coordination between the US and Israel as the US-Iran conflict deadline approaches. The snub might indicate increased diplomatic pressure on Netanyahu, but at 5.5% for a June departure, traders aren’t expecting a sudden exit. For the peace deal, a YES share at 30¢ pays $1 if a deal is struck by May 31, a 3.3x return.

Watch for statements from Netanyahu or shifts in US diplomatic engagement, and upcoming congressional votes on military action against Iran. Either could move both the Netanyahu departure odds and US-Iran peace deal pricing.

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