In his “Full Send” keynote at the Token2049 event in Abu Dhabi on 30 April 2025, Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s CEO confirms his bullish outlook on crypto markets. “It’s time to go long everything,” he says.
He explains further that in terms of a market setup, a similar situation unfolded in September 2022, where the central banks globally were hiking rates aggressively, treasury bonds were experiencing their worst performance since 1812, volatility was spiking, and crypto was melting down, led by the collapse of FTX.
He emphasised that behind all the noise, Janet Yellen, the former Secretary of the Treasury, laid the foundation for a massive recovery. In 2022, the treasury pumped two and a half trillion dollars by draining the reverse repo program, issuing more short-term debts as opposed to long-term debts, and therefore pulling liquidity into risk assets.
https://twitter.com/theTradeOp/status/1917677031342371219?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow
As a result, Bitcoin and gold skyrocketed. Bitcoin alone surged by more than 100% from late 2022 to early 2024. All of this, he explains, happened when the Federal Reserve (Fed) was supposedly tightening.
Hayes emphasised that true liquidity comes from the Treasury and not just the central bank.
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In his Token2049 keynote, Hayes highlighted the MOVE index as a crucial indicator, noting that when it surpasses 140, policymakers swiftly intervene.
He states, “With this index, it’s about a 140. You have immediate response from policymakers.” He emphasises that people are currently hesitant about investing in crypto assets like Bitcoin because of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, as they have completely cracked the financial markets and have created a lot of uncertainty.
The initial announcements had caused the markets to crash. However, there was a semblance of relief after the tariffs were paused for a 90-day period.
He further states that Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not see eye to eye with Trump and is unlikely to intervene to fix the market. Furthermore, with the tech stocks crashing in April 2025, people’s risk appetite is low.
After the tariff announcement, the MOVE index recorded an intraday high of a 172, something that has happened only three times in the past and again, saw an almost immediate response in the form of Trump’s pivoting to pause the tariffs for 90 days on everyone except China.
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Hayes explains that Bessant’s Buy Back program isn’t technically money printing because the US Treasury uses it as a budget and supply-neutral way to influence how much leverage marginal buyers of treasury debt receive.
He further explains that the US government is broke and that its spending is outpacing revenue by 22% year over year. The private sector is out of funds too, since households have blown through their COVID stimulus and cannot buy any more debt. Moreover, foreign governments like China, Japan, etc., are reducing US bond purchases due to the weaponisation of the dollar (freezing Russian assets).
Hayes concludes by saying that the US must fund its deficits through its domestic financial engineering, meaning more hidden liquidity injections. When connecting all the dots of a structural US deficit, a declining demand for US treasuries, constant need for liquidity injection and a rising global distrust of fiat currencies, it comes to the fore that Bitcoin is destined to go much higher.
“April 9, 2025, was just the beginning. Bitcoin rallied 30% after the latest liquidity wave started. By 2028, I believe we’re staring down the barrel of $1,000,000 Bitcoin. Not because Bitcoin itself changed — but because the fiat system is fundamentally, irreversibly broken.”
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