The United States Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision later today, but, unlike essentially every meeting in the past six years, markets remain divided over what comes next.
Bitcoin investors seemingly de-risked yesterday in what appeared to be a blatant sell-off ahead of the key event. The question now is what follows.
Why So Much Unpredictability Now
The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on July 28 and will publish its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference will follow approximately 30 minutes later, in which investors will seek clues for what the central bank’s policy will be for the remainder of 2026.
The current benchmark rate stands between 3.50% and 3.75%. Although most experts still believe it will be left unchanged, futures markets recently assigned a probability of up to 38% to a surprise 25-basis-point hike. According to the analyst at the Kobeissi Letter, these expectations are among the most divided in recent history.
They explained that nearly every Fed meeting since the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 entered decision day with roughly 99% agreement about the outcome. The situation now is different for the first time in over six years, given the aforementioned odds on futures markets and prediction platforms.
The uncertainty partly stems from Warsh’s decision to reduce the central bank’s reliance on forward guidance. Minutes from the June meeting showed that policymakers discussed shortening the Fed’s statement and removing language indicating the likely direction of the next move. Warsh’s approach is expected to preserve flexibility, but it has also left traders without the clear policy signals they became accustomed to under Jerome Powell.
Change or No Change
The Kobeissi Letter analysts said they believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged. A recent Reuters survey of over 100 forecasters reached the same conclusion, with more than three-quarters predicting no policy shift until the end of the year. ING economists shared the same opinion.
One of the reasons for this is the softer-than-expected inflation data for June. The labor market has also shown signs of weakening, giving the Fed another reason not to tighten financial conditions further.
There’s also the opposite side of the coin, though, as some experts believe the central bank might lose credibility if it waits too long. Inflation remains well above the 2% target, while renewed geopolitical tension, tariffs, and energy-market instability could push prices higher again.
Several Fed officials have reportedly become more open to the idea of raising rates if inflation fails to improve. Warsh has also avoided giving markets a clear roadmap, meaning that a hike cannot be easily dismissed simply because officials did not prepare investors for one in advance.
Crypto Impact
Crypto analytics platform Santiment Intelligence outlined a notable rise in social-media discussions about the interest-rate hikes ahead of today’s meeting. The data showed a similar spike in such fears before the previous meeting on June 16. However, as it typically happens, the social chatter was wrong as the Fed left rates unchanged.
“Crowd conviction can get loud right before it gets wrong, especially when traders are trying to price Fed uncertainty into Bitcoin,” said Santiment.
Let’s talk prices. BTC dipped by $3,000 yesterday in a de-risking development ahead of the meeting. It has recovered half of the losses, currently sitting above $64,000.
If the Fed doesn’t change rates and Warsh doesn’t signal strongly for a September hike, BTC could rebound further as the uncertainty might have already been priced in. If there’s no rate change but the Chairman sounds hawkish, bitcoin might jump initially as there would be no hike now, but it’s likely to retreat toward $60,000 in the next few weeks.
A surprise 25-basis-point increase, though, will be the most bearish immediate outcome for the cryptocurrency. The decision will likely strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher, and cause investors to further reduce exposure to speculative assets.
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